000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 23.1N 114.0W at 14/1500 UTC moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 120 nm in the NW semicircle. A northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a slower north-northwestward or northward motion on Thursday. Norbert is expected to begin weakening later today and become a remnant low late tonight or on Thursday. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Thursday night. Seas currently are peaking near 14 ft, which will gradually subside during the next two days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 84W from 02N northward to Costa Rica into the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is present near the wave this morning. A tropical wave axis is near 102W from 02N to 17N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 13N-16N between 97W-104W. A tropical wave axis is near 121W from 02N to 19N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 10N-12N between 121W-126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 12N115W to 10N132W, where it becomes an ITCZ axis from 10N132W to beyond 10N140W. In addition to the convection noted above with the wave near 121W, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 09N-11W between 114W-116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Norbert. Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop offshore of SW Mexico up through the S Gulf of California by this evening. These winds will spread northwest to the central Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California Sur Thu, then to off Baja California Norte Fri and Fri night while diminishing elsewhere. Seas should remain below 8 ft with these NW winds. Fresh to near gale N gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will briefly diminish Thu afternoon, then return late Thu night. Peak seas will remain near 8 ft. Winds may then increase to gale force Fri night through Sat night before diminishing on Sun. Seas should peak with this gale event near 12 ft Sat morning and remain at least 8 ft through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will be light to gentle north of the monsoon trough laying along 09N, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region Sat night. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Mainly moderate - 5 to 7 ft - long-period S swell will prevail across the waters through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common in the Central American zones due to the proximity of the monsoon trough for at least the next couple of days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A moderate pressure gradient due to a 1028 mb high near 38N134W and low pressure from the ITCZ is producing generally moderate to fresh E trades. Troughing to develop west of Baja California should weaken these trades slightly Fri through Sun. A set of northerly swell continues to reach the area N of 26N, with seas ranging between 8 to 10 ft. This swell will continue to propagate across the northern waters through the next couple of days mainly between 124W and 140W. A reinforcing set of northerly swell will move across the northern waters by the end of the week into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the area S of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh trades N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell dominates the remainder of the waters. $$ Landsea