000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140837 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Oct 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 22.1N 113.3W at 14/0900 UTC moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm in the NW semicircle and within 30 nm in the SE semicircle of Norbert. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 22N to 26N between 108W and 112W, including the Gulf of California. Norbert is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Thu morning, become a remnant low Thu afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 82W/83W from 02N northward near the Costa Rica/Panama border into the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection has dissipated early this morning. A tropical wave axis is along 100W from 02N to the coast of SW Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Only scattered showers are noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 120W from 01N to 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 116W and 123W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 10N105W to 12N113W to 10N131W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 106W and 116W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also noted within 210 nm SW of Central America and Mexico between 86W and 98W which developed during the late afternoon and evening hours on Tue before propagating offshore. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Norbert. Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop offshore of SW Mexico up through the southern Gulf of California by this evening. These winds will spread NW to the central Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California Sur Thu, then to off Baja California Norte Fri and Fri night while diminishing elsewhere. Fresh to near gale northerly gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will briefly diminish Thu afternoon, then return late Thu night. Winds may then increase to gale force Fri night through Sat night. Seas are forecast to build to 12 to 13 ft during the gale conditions. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Heavy thunderstorms described above will continue to move through the offshore waters of Costa Rica northward to Guatemala through the morning, bringing strong winds and squalls. Moderate NE-E winds will pulse in the Papagayo region at night, increasing to moderate to fresh Sat night. Otherwise, moderate southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are expected N of it through the next several days. Mainly moderate long period southerly swell with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail across the waters through the end of the week into the weekend. Seas may build by the end of the weekend due to an arriving southwesterly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A set of northerly swell continues to reach the area N of 26N, with seas ranging between 8 to 10 ft. This swell will continue to propagate across the northern waters through the next couple of days mainly between 124W and 140W. A reinforcing set of northerly swell will move across the northern waters by the end of the week into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the area S of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh trades N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell dominates the remainder of the waters. $$ Lewitsky