000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 21.0N 112.7W at 14/0300 UTC moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the NE quadrant and within 30 nm in the SW quadrant. Norbert will weaken to a tropical depression Wed evening, then become a post-tropical remnant low by thu evening, dissipating by Fri morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 81W from 02N northward across western Panama and into the western Caribbean Sea, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 77W and 90W. A tropical wave axis is along 98W/99W from 02N to the coast of SW Mexico, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 97W and 100W. A tropical wave axis is along 118W/119W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09.5N to 15N between 115W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W to 09N90W to 10N105W to 12N115W to 10N125W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 104W and 110W, and from 07N to 12N between 111W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 107W and 110W, from 09N to 11N between 123W and 126W, and from 08N to 10N between 136W and 139W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also noted within 90 nm SW of Central America and Mexico between 86W and 96W from daytime convection which has propagate offshore. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Norbert. Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop offshore of SW Mexico up through the southern Gulf of California Wed night as a trough shifts westward from mainland Mexico across the region. These winds will spread NW to the central Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California Sur Thu, then to off Baja California Norte Fri and Fri night while diminishing elsewhere. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is commencing this evening. A brief lull is expected Thu afternoon and evening before winds return, possibly reaching gale Fri night through Sat night. Seas are forecast to build up to 14 ft by late Fri into early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE-E winds will pulse in the Papagayo region at night, increasing to moderate to fresh Sat night. A southerly wind surge may occur in the Gulf of Panama this evening near a tropical wave which will move by overnight. Strong thunderstorms and squally conditions may accompany the wave. Moderate southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, while mainly light to gentle winds will prevail N of it through the next several days. Mainly moderate long period southerly swell with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail across the waters through the end of the week into the weekend. Seas may build by the end of the weekend due to an arriving southwesterly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A set of northerly swell continues to reach the area N of 26N, with seas ranging between 8 to 10 ft. This swell will continue to propagate across the northern waters through the next couple of days mainly between 124W and 140W. A reinforcing set of northerly swell will move across the northern waters by the end of the week into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the area S of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh trades N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell dominates the remainder of the waters. $$ Lewitsky