000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130804 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure, associated in part with the remnants of Norbert, is located less than 100 nm east-southeast of Socorro Island, Mexico near 18N109.5W at 1007 mb. Satellite imagery and recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low has continued to become better defined, while associated showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the NW semicircle of the low. If this recent development trend continues, then a short-lived tropical depression could form on Tuesday while the low moves slowly west-northwestward. By Wednesday, however, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development. This low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is just E of the area along 76W from western Colombia northward, moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N to the E of 80W including over northern and western Colombia. A tropical wave axis is along 94W N of the equator to near the border of Guatemala and Mexico, is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 91W and 95W. A tropical wave axis is along 114W from 06N to 21N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 112W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N77W to 10N86W to 07N94W to low pressure near 18N109.5W to 11N120W to low pressure near 10N131W to 11N137W. The ITCZ axis extends from 11N137W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10.5N between 83W and 88W, from 04N to 09N between 96W and 102W, and from 14N to 24N between 104W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 105W and 107W, from 08N to 10N between 117W and 124W, and from 10N to 12N between 124W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on low pressure near 18N109.5W. A surge of winds and heavy thunderstorms will move from near Cabo Corrientes across the southern Gulf of California through the morning hours. Seas will briefly build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia through early today. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days. Similar winds are expected from near Cabo Corrientes northward through the southern and central Gulf of California Wed through Thu night, spreading to the northern Gulf of California Fri. Winds will shift to southerly from near Cabo Corrientes northward to the northern Gulf of California this weekend as a trough moves from western Mexico westward offshore. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin this evening and persist through at least Sat night. Gale conditions are possible Fri night through Sat night, with seas building up to 14 ft by late Fri into early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE-E winds will pulse in the Papagayo region at night, increasing to moderate to fresh Sat night. A southerly wind surge may occur in the Gulf of Panama tonight ahead of a tropical wave which will move by overnight. Strong thunderstorms and squally conditions may accompany this feature. Otherwise, moderate southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough while mainly light to gentle winds are expected N of it through the next several days. Mainly moderate long period southerly swell with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail across the waters through the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An area of low pressure along the monsoon trough has moved well WNW of 140W. Even though the low and associated winds have shifted W of the area, remnant seas of around 8 ft linger from 13N to 16N to the W of 135W. These conditions will gradually subside through late tonight. A set of northerly swell continues to reach the area N of 27N, with seas ranging between 8 to 9 ft. This swell will continue to propagate across the northern waters through the next couple of days mainly between 125W and 140W. A reinforcing set of northerly swell will move across the northern waters by the end of the week into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the area S of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh trades N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in mixed swell dominates the remainder of the waters. $$ Lewitsky