000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130220
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Oct 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure, associated in part with the remnants of 
Norbert, is located a few hundred nm southwest of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico near 18N109W. Satellite imagery and 
satellite-derived surface winds suggest that the low is a little
better defined than it was yesterday, but the associated showers
and thunderstorms remain somewhat disorganized. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of
the center and from 18N to 22N between 105W and 108W. This 
system could still become a short-lived tropical depression 
while it moves west-northwestward during the next day or so 
before environmental conditions become less favorable for 
development. This low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone 
formation in the next 48 hours.
Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis with axis along 93W N of the equator to 
near the border of Guatemala and Mexico, is moving westward at 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 09N to 12N between 90W and 93W.

A tropical wave axis is along 113W from 07N to 21N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described
below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 
10N76W to 10N86W to 07N95W to low pressure near 18N109W to low 
pressure near 11N131W to 11N136W. The ITCZ axis extends from
11N136W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 80W and 90W,
within 180 nm S-SW of the axis between 94W and 104W, from 08N to
12N between 106W and 111W, from 11N to 13N between 113W and 120W,
and from 08N to 12N between 122W and 127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on low
pressure near 18N109W.

Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the
offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days.
Similar winds are expected from near Cabo Corrientes northward
through the southern and central Gulf of California Wed through
Thu night, spreading to the northern Gulf of California Fri.
Winds will shift to southerly from near Cabo Corrientes northward
to the northern Gulf of California this weekend as a trough moves
from western Mexico westward offshore. Seas will briefly build 
to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia through early Tue.

The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to
begin Tue evening and persist through at least Sat night. Gale 
conditions are possible Fri night through Sat night, with seas 
building up 14 ft by late Fri into early Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate NE-E winds will pulse in the Papagayo region at night, 
increasing to moderate to fresh Sat night. Otherwise, moderate 
southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough while 
mainly light to gentle winds are expected N of it through the 
next several days. Mainly moderate long period southerly swell
with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail across the waters 
through the end of the week into the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

An area of low pressure along the monsoon trough has moved well W
of 140W. Even though the low and associated winds have shifted W
of the area, remnant seas of 8 to 9 ft linger from 13N to 18N to
the W of 135W. These conditions will gradually subside through
Tue night.

A set of northerly swell continues to reach the area N of 27N,
with seas ranging between 8 to 9 ft. This swell will continue to
propagate across the northern waters through the next couple of 
days mainly between 125W and 140W. A reinforcing set of 
northerly swell will move across the northern waters by the end 
of the week into the weekend.

Moderate monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the 
area S of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh 
trades N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W. Seas of 5 to 8 ft 
in mixed swell dominates the remainder of the waters.

$$
Lewitsky