000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122116
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Oct 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure associated in part with the remnants of 
Norbert is located near 17N108W at 1007 mb. Satellite images 
suggest that the low is a little better defined than yesterday, 
but the associated showers and thunderstorms have become less 
organized during the past several hours. This system could still 
become a short-lived tropical depression while it moves west- 
northwestward during the next day or so before environmental 
conditions become less favorable for development. This low has a 
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.
Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis with axis along 92W N of the equator to 
Central America, is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 90W and 
96W.

A tropical wave axis is along 112W from 07N to 20N, moving 
westward at around 10-15 kt. The convection near the wave is 
related to the special features low described above. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to special feature low 
near 17N108W to low 11N131W to 11N137W. ITCZ continues from that
point to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 05N to 08N and E of 90W, and from 07N to 12N between 103W 
and 108W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on low
pressure near 17N108W.

Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the
offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days.
Seas will briefly build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia 
through Tue. 

The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to
begin on by late Tue and persist through at least Fri night. 
Gale conditions are possible on Fri afternoon, with seas 
building up 14 ft by late Fri-early Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon 
trough while mainly light to gentle winds are expected N of it. 
These winds will persist over the next several days. Seas of 4 
to 6 ft will build to 6 to 7 ft E of 85W today into Tue due to 
long period SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

An area of low pressure along the monsoon trough has moved W of 
140W. Even though the low and associated winds have shifted W of 
the area, remnant seas of 8 to 9 ft linger from 14N to 19N to 
the W of 136W. These conditions will gradually subside during 
the next 18 hours.

A set of northerly swell continues to reach the area N of 28N,
with seas ranging between 8 to 9 ft. This swell will continue to
propagate through the next 24 hours between 125W and 131W, then 
seas will subside to less than 8 ft through 48 hours.

Moderate monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the 
area S of the monsoon trough, with moderate to fresh trades N of
the monsoon trough and W of 135W based on recent scatterometer 
data. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell dominates the waters S of
10N.

$$
ERA