000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121542 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Oct 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure associated in part with the remnants of Norbert is located near 18N109W at 1007 mb. Earlier scatterometer data indicate that this system is currently poorly organized at the surface, however showers and thunderstorms in the area continue to show signs of organization and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development during the next day or so. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the N semicircle. A tropical depression is likely to form within a few days while the system moves slowly toward the northwest. Mariners should remain alert for thunderstorms across these waters, which will create strong gusty winds, locally higher seas, and have the potential from frequent cloud to water lighting. This low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis with axis along 91W N of the equator to Central America, is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 88W and 95W. A tropical wave axis is along 110W from 07N to 20N, moving westward at around 10 kt. The convection near the wave is related to the special features low described above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N93W to 016N110W to 11N120W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 80W and 90W, and N of 08N between 100W and 107W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on low pressure near 18N109W. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days. Seas will briefly build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia later today through Tue. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Tue night and persist through at least Fri night. Gale conditions are possible Fri and Fri night, with seas building up to 13 or 14 ft by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough while mainly light to gentle winds are expected N of it. These winds will persist over the next several days. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will build to 6 to 7 ft E of 85W today into Tue due to long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A small area of low pressure along the monsoon trough has moved W of 140W. Even though the low and associated fresh to strong winds have shifted W of the area, remnant seas of 8 to 9 ft linger from 14N to 20N to the W of 134W. These conditions will gradually subside during the next 24 hours as the low continues to move away from the area. A set of northerly swell is reaching 27N. This swell will continue to propagate southward through mid-week, with seas of 8 to 9 ft covering roughly the waters N of 28N between 120W and 130W through Tue, and N of 27N and W of 120W on Wed. Moderate monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the area S of the monsoon trough, with moderate to fresh trades N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W based on recent scatterometer data. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell dominates the waters S of 10N and W of 109W. This swell will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by tonight. $$ ERA