000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120811 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Oct 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure associated in part with the remnants of Norbert is located a few hundred nm southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico, near 18N109W at 1007 mb. Earlier scatterometer data indicate that this system is currently poorly organized at the surface, however showers and thunderstorms in the area continue to show signs of organization and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development during the next day or so. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the N semicircle. A tropical depression is likely to form within a few days while the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest. Mariners should remain alert for thunderstorms across these waters, which will create strong gusty winds, locally higher seas, and have the potential from frequent cloud to water lighting. This low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 90W N of the equator to Central America, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 86W and 91W. A tropical wave axis is along 108W from the equator to 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N83W to 09N96W to low pressure near 18N109W to low pressure near 12N127W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 78W and 85W, from 13N to 17N between 98W and 100W, from 10N to 14N between 100W and 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on low pressure near 18N109W. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days. Seas will briefly build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia later today through Tue. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Tue night and persist through at least Fri night. Gale conditions are possible Fri and Fri night, with seas building up to 13 or 14 ft by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse in the Papagayo Region through early today. Otherwise, moderate southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough while mainly light to gentle winds are expected N of it. These winds will persist over the next several days. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected through early today, building to 6 to 7 ft E of 85W later today into Tue due to long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A small area of low pressure along the monsoon trough has moved W of 140W. Even though the low and associated fresh to strong winds have shifted W of the area, remnant seas of 8 to 11 ft linger from 13N to 22N to the W of 133W. These conditions will gradually subside during the next 24 to 48 hours as the low continues to move away from the area. A set of northerly swell is reaching 27N. This swell will continue to propagate southward through mid-week, with seas of 8 to 9 ft covering roughly the waters N of 26N between 120W and 135W by later today, and N of 27N between 120W and 135W on Tue. Moderate monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the area S of the monsoon trough, with moderate to fresh trades N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W based on recent scatterometer data. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed SE and NW swell dominates the waters S of 10N and W of 109W. This swell will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by late tonight. $$ Lewitsky