000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120226 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms, partially associated with the remnants of Norbert, have increased in organization a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico, near 17.5N108.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 270 nm in the NE quadrant, 90 nm S semicircle, and 150 nm NW quadrant. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form later tonight or on Monday while the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest. Mariners should remain alert for thunderstorms across these waters, which will create strong gusty winds, locally higher seas, and have the potential from frequent cloud to water lighting. This low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 89W N of the equator to Central America, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 06N between 82W and 89W. A tropical wave axis is along 107W from 01N to 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 98W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 09N90W to low pressure near 17.5N108.5W to low pressure near 12N127W to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 77W and 82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 107W and 117W, and from 10N to 14N between 123W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on low pressure near 17.5N108.5W. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days. Seas will briefly build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Mon through Tue. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Tue night and persist through at least Fri night. Gale conditions are possible Fri and Fri night, with seas building up to 14 or 15 ft by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse in the Papagayo Region tonight through early Mon. Otherwise, moderate southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough while mainly light to gentle winds are expected N of it. These winds will persist over the next several days. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected through early Mon, building to 6 to 7 ft E of 85W late Mon into Tue due to long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A small area of low pressure has moved W of 140W near 14N141W. Even though the low has shifted W of the area, associated winds of 20 to 25 kt extend from 14N to 18N to the W of 138W. Seas are up to 12 ft on the N side of the low with a larger surrounding area of seas of 8 ft or greater. These conditions will gradually diminish and subside during the next 48 hours as the low continues to move away from the area. A set of northerly swell is reaching 29N/30N. This swell event will continue to propagate southward Mon through Tue, with seas of 8 to 9 ft covering roughly the waters N of 26N between 120W and 135W on Mon, and N of 27N between 120W and 135W on Tue. This swell event will subside by Wed. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the forecast area based on earlier scatterometer data. Seas of 7 to 9 ft mainly in SE swell dominate the waters S of 06N and W of 105W. These swells will gradually subside on Mon. $$ Lewitsky