000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Oct 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends over northern Central America. Its axis is along 87W N of 01N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 04N to 06N between 83W and 91W. A tropical wave axis is along 106W N of 01N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 100W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 14N95W to 1007 mb low pressure near 17.5N108W to 12N120W to 1008 mb low pressure near 14N139W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 80W, including the Gulf of Panama. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N to 13N between 110W and 115W, from 10N to 12N between 125W and 128W, and from 10N to 15N W of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days. Seas will briefly build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Mon through Tue. Showers and thunderstorms, partially associated with the remnants of Norbert, are showing signs of organization a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. A 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed near 17.5N108W. This convective activity is over the offshore waters forecast of Mexico, and just SE of a line from Cabo Corrientes to the Revillagigedo Islands. Mariners should remain alert for thunderstorms across these waters, which will create strong fusty winds, locally higher seas, and have the potential from frequent cloud to water lighting. Upper- level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves slowly to the west-northwest or northwest. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours, and a medium chance through 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Tue night and persist through at least Fri. Gale conditions are possible Fri and Fri night, with seas building up to 14 or 15 ft by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough while mainly light to gentle winds are expected N of it. These winds will persist over the next several days. Seas of 4-6 ft are expected through early Mon, building to 6-7 ft E of 85W late Mon into Tue due to long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A small area of low pressure is located about 1800 miles west- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for further tropical cyclone development. The low will likely continue moving westward around 10-15 kt for the next few days. A recent scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong NE to E winds within about 360 nm in the northern semicircle of the low center while an altimeter pass provided observations of seas in the 9- 13 ft range. At 21Z, visible satellite imagery indicates that the low is located near 14N140W. These marine conditions will shift westward into the Central Pacific region with the low center. A new set of northerly swell is reaching 30N. This swell event will continue to propagate southward Mon through Tue, with seas of 8 to 9 ft covering roughly the waters N of 26N between 120W and 135W on Mon, and N of 27N between 120W and 135W on Tue. This swell event will subside by Wed. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the forecast area based on earlier scatterometer data. Seas of 7-9 ft mainly in SE swell dominate the waters S of 10N and W of 110W. These swells will gradually subside on Mon. $$ GR