000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111524 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over northern Central America. Its axis is along 86W N of 01N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 82W and 90W. A tropical wave axis is along 105W N of 01N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 95W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 08N90W to 1008 mb low pressure near 17N108W to 12N125W to 1008 mb low pressure near 14N137W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N E of 80W, from 11N to 14N between 110W and 116W, and from 10N to 12N between 125W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days. Seas will briefly build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Mon through Tue. By mid-week, a low pressure, associated with the remnants of Norbert, is forecast to cross S of the Revillagigedo Islands producing moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Tue night and persist through at least Thu night. the strongest winds are expected Tue night through Wed night. Winds may approach minimal gale-force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough while mainly light to gentle winds are expected N of it. These winds will persist over the next several days. Seas of 4-6 ft are expected through early Mon, building to 6-7 ft E of 85W late Mon into Tue due to long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are partially associated with the remnants of Norbert. a 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed near 17N108W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is observed within about 120 nm NW semicircle of low center. Upper-level winds could gradually become more conducive for development during the next few days while the system moves slowly to the west-northwest or northwest. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours, and a medium chance through 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. A small area of low pressure is located over the far southwestern portion of eastern Pacific about 1900 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. While thunderstorm activity has recently increased with the low, environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for further development. The low will likely continue moving westward around 10-15 kt for the next few days crossing 140W tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted in the northern semicircle of the low, particularly from 14N to 19N W of 133W. An area of 8 to 12 ft seas covers these winds extending slightly outward. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. A new set of northerly swell will drop S of 30N later today. This swell event will continue to propagate southward Mon through Tue, with seas of 8 to 9 ft covering roughly the waters N of 25N between 120W and 135W on Mon, and N of 27N between 120W and 135W on Tue. This swell event will subside by Wed. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the forecast area based on earlier scatterometer data. Combined seas of 7 to 8 ft dominate mainly the waters S of 10N and W of 105W. Additional mainly southerly swell of 7 to 8 ft is found S of the monsoon trough between 100W and 115W. These swells will gradually subside through the remainder of this weekend. $$ GR