000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110846 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 84W N of 01N across portions of Central America, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 81W and 83W. A tropical wave axis is along 103W N of 01N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 98W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 15N100W to low pressure near 15.5N106.5W to 11N120W to low pressure near 12.5N126W to low pressure near 14.5N136W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N E of 79W, and from 14N to 16N between 96W and 99W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days. Seas will briefly build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Mon through Tue. By mid-week, a low pressure, associated with the remnants of Norbert, is forecast to cross S of the Revillagigedo Islands producing moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Tue night and persist through at least Thu night, when the strongest winds are expected. At that time, winds may approach minimal gale-force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough while mainly light to gentle winds are expected N of it. These winds will persist over the next several days. Seas of 4-6 ft are expected through early Mon, building to 6-7 ft E of 85W late Mon into Tue due to long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred nm southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated in part with the remnants of Norbert, located near 15.5N106.5W at 1008 mb. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 270 nm of the remnant location in the NW semicircle. Recent scatterometer data showed that winds have diminished to moderate to fresh.This system is forecast to move very little during the next couple of days, and then move slowly toward the northwest after that. Some slight development is possible by the middle of the week. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. An elongated area of low pressure is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms nearly 1800 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, near 14.5N136W at 1008 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm in the SW quadrant of the low. Recent scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds within 270 nm in the northern semicircle of the low, while an area of 8 to 11 ft seas covers these winds extending slightly outward. Further development of this system is not anticipated. The low will likely continue moving westward around 15 kt for the next few days, reaching 140W by around 24 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. A remnant trough that was over the northern waters has dissipated per recent scatterometer and conventional satellite data. Associated seas have subsided to just less than 8 ft per recent altimeter data. A new set of northerly swell will drop S of 30N later today. This swell event will continue to propagate southward Mon through Tue, with seas of 8 to 10 ft covering the waters N of 24N between 120W and 135W on Mon, and N of 25N W of 117W with sea heights of 8 to 9 ft Tue. This swell event will subside by Wed. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the forecast area based on earlier scatterometer data. Combined seas of 7 to 8 ft dominate mainly the waters S of 10N and W of 105W. Additional mainly southerly swell of 7 to 8 ft is found S of the monsoon trough between 100W and 115W. These swells will gradually subside through the remainder of this weekend. $$ Lewitsky