238 AXPZ20 KNHC 110229 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 102W N of 01N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 11N90W to low pressure near 15N106W to 12N120W to low pressure near 14.5N133W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 84W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm either side of the axis between 113W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days. Seas will briefly build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Mon through Tue. By mid-week, a low pressure, associated with the remnants of Norbert, is forecast to cross S of the Revillagigedo Islands producing moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Tue night and persist through at least Thu night, when the strongest winds are expected. At that time, winds may approach minimal gale-force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough while mainly light to gentle winds are expected N of it. These winds will persist over the next several days. Seas of 4-6 ft are expected through early Mon, building to 6-7 ft E of 85W late Mon into Tue due to long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred nm southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated with the remnants of Norbert, located near 15N106W at 1008 mb. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the SE and NW quadrants of the remnant low. This system is forecast to move very little during the next couple of days, and little to no development is expected during that time. Some development appears possible by the middle of next week when the system begins to move toward the northwest at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located near 14.5N133W, or about 1700 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula remain disorganized, and recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low's circulation is starting to become elongated. Even so, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the SW quadrant of the low. Due to surrounding dry air and increasing upper-level winds, environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development of this low while it moves westward at about 15 kt. This system is forecast to cross 140W Sun night. An area of fresh to strong easterly winds is observed N of the center thanks to the pressure gradient between the low and a ridge to the N. This area of winds, with seas of up to 11 or 12 ft will move westward in tandem with the low center over the next 24-36 hours. The low has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. A trough, the remnants of a cold front, extends from 30N119W to 27N130W to 28N140W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted on either side of the trough. Earlier altimeter data showed seas to 8 ft in the wake of this trough. This swell will decay as it shifts E through the remainder of this evening. A new set of northerly swell will drop S of 30N by Sun night. This swell event will continue to propagate southward Mon through Tue, with seas of 8 to 10 ft covering the waters N of 24N between 120W and 135W on Mon, and N of 25N W of 117W with sea heights of 8 to 9 ft Tue. This swell event will subside by Wed. Moderate to fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the forecast area based on earlier scatterometer data. Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft dominate mainly the waters S of 10N and W of 105W. Additional mainly southerly swell of 7-9 ft is found S of the monsoon trough between 105W and 120W. These swells will gradually subside through the remainder of the weekend. $$ Lewitsky