000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102124 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 101W N of 03N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted W of the wave axis from 12N to 15N between 101W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W to 11N86W to 1009 mb low pressure near 15N106W to 12N120W to 1008 mb low pressure near 14.5N133W to 11N134W. The ITCZ axis extends from 11N134W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 92W and 101W, from 10N to 13N between 113W and 120W, and from 10N to 12N between 126W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days. Seas will briefly build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Mon through Tue. By mid-week, a low pressure, possible the remnants of Norbert, is forecast to cross S of the Revillagigedo Islands producing moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Tue night and persist through Thu night into Fri, when the strongest winds are expected. At that time, winds may approach to minimal gale-force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The most recent scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate southwesterly winds S of the monsoon trough and E of 100W while mainly light to gentle winds are noted N of it. These winds will persist over the next several days. Seas of 4-6 ft are expected through early Mon, building to 6-7 ft E of 85W late Mon into Tue due to long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico are associated with the remnants of Norbert. Little to no development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However, by the middle of next week the disturbance is expected to begin moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area where conditions are expected to become more favorable for some development. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 106W and 110W. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little since early this morning in association with a small low pressure system located about 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. In addition, satellite data suggests that the low is not as well-defined as it was yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development as the low is expected to encounter dry air while moving toward the west or west-southwest at 10 to 15 kt over the next day or so. Thereafter, strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit further development. This system is forecast to cross 140W Sun night. An area of fresh to strong easterly winds is observed N of the center thanks to the pressure gradient between the low and a ridge to the N. This area of winds, with seas of up to 11 or 12 ft will move westward in tandem with the low center over the next 24-36 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. A trough, the remnants of a cold front, extends from 30N122W to 27N140W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted on either side of the trough. Recent altimeter data show again seas of 8-9 ft in the wake of this trough. This swell will decay as it shifts E through this evening. A new set of northerly swell will drop S of 30N by Sun night. This swell event will continue to propagate southward Mon through Tue, with seas of 8 to 10 ft covering the waters N of 24N between 120W and 135W on Mon, and N of 25N W of 117W with sea heights of 8 to 9 ft Tue. This swell event will subside by Wed. Moderate to fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the forecast area based on scatterometer data. Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft dominate mainly the waters S of 10N and W of 105W. This swell event will gradually subside through this weekend. $$ GR