000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 100W N of 03N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 11N to 16N between 92W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N73W to 11N86W to 1009 mb low pressure near 14N107W to 12N120W to 1008 mb low pressure near 15N132W to 11N134W. The ITCZ axis extends from 11N134W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 115W and 119W, and from 10N to 12N between 124W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are expected west of the northern and central Baja California peninsula through Sun. Seas of mainly 4-7 ft in mixed long period swell will prevail through the weekend into early next week. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Tue night and persist through at least Wed night. Winds may approach minimal gale-force by Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it through the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in long-period southerly swell mixed with northwest swell through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnants of Norbert are located near 14N107W. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. An area of 20-25 kt winds is noted within 120 nm SE quadrant of center with seas to 9 ft per altimeter data. Overnight scatterometer data showed that Norbert has become elongated and thus the last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted mainly W of the low center from 12N to 15N between 106W and 110W. Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with a small low pressure system located about 1500 miles west- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. However, environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development as the low is expected to encounter dry air while moving toward the west or west-southwest at 10 to 15 mph over the next day or so. Thereafter, strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit further development. This low has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. A trough, the remnants of a cold front, extends from 30N128W to 26N140W. Associated winds are 20 kt or less S of 30N, however there is a pronounced wind shift. Also, NW-N swell of 8-9 ft has moved in behind the boundary per recent altimeter passes. This swell will decay as it shifts E through this evening. A new set of northerly swell will drop S of 30N by Sun night. This swell event will continue to propagate southward Mon through Tue, with seas of 8 to 10 ft covering the waters N of 24N between 120W and 135W on Mon, and N of 25N W of 117W with sea heights of 8 to 9 ft Tue. This swell event will subside by Wed. An area of combined seas of 7 to 9 ft covers the waters mainly S of 10N and W of 105W. This swell event will gradually subside through this weekend. $$ GR