000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100844 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Oct 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Remnants of Norbert centered near 13.8N 106.7W at 10/0900 UTC stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Overnight scatterometer data showed that Norbert has become elongated and thus the final advisory has been issued. Even so, fresh to strong winds in monsoonal flow along with seas of 8 to 10 ft are found within 240 nm in the SE semicircle of the remnant position. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm in the SE semicircle and within 150 in the W quadrant. Please read the final NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 99W N of 03N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Only isolated convection is noted near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 15N103W, then resumes from 13N110W to 12N117W to low pressure near 15.5N130.5W to 12N134W. The ITCZ axis extends from 12N134W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 91W and 95W, and from 07N to 10N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for details on the Remnants of Norbert. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are expected west of the northern and central Baja California peninsula through Sun. Seas of mainly 4-7 ft in mixed long period swell will prevail through the weekend into early next week. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Tue night and persist through at least Wed night. Winds may approach minimal gale-force by Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it through the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in long-period southerly swell mixed with northwest swell through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section for details on the Remnants of Norbert. A 1008 mb area of low pressure is located near 15.5N130.5W, or about 1500 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Scattered moderate from 13N to 16N between 130W and 133W, however dry air continues to limit shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development during the next day or so as the low moves toward the west or west-southwest at 10 to 15 kt. Thereafter, strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit further development. This low has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. A trough, the remnants of a cold front, extends from 30N130W to 28N140W. Associated winds are 20 kt or less S of 30N, however there is a pronounced wind shift. Also, NW-N swell of 8-9 ft has moved in behind the boundary per recent altimeter passes. This swell will decay as it shifts E through this evening. A new set of northerly swell will drop S of 30N by Sun night. This swell event will continue to propagate southward Mon through Tue, with seas of 8 to 9 ft covering the waters N of 24N between 120W and 135W on Mon, and N of 24N W of 117W with sea heights of 8 to 10 ft Tue. The swell will subside by early. An area of combined seas of 7 to 9 ft covers the waters mainly S of 10N and W of 105W. This swell event will gradually subside through the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky