000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100236 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near 14.0N 106.8W at 10/0300 UTC moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the SE semicircle with scattered moderate convection noted elsewhere within 360 nm in the SE semicircle. Norbert will change little in intensity through Sun, dissipating by early Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 97W/98W N of 03N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 13N87W to 14N104W, then resumes W-SW of Norbert near 13N112W to low pressure near 15.5N130.5W to 11N133W. The ITCZ axis extends from 11N133W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 90W and 98W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 99W and 104W, and from 08N to 10N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Norbert which is forecast to remain along or just beyond the offshore waters outer boundary. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are expected west of the northern and central Baja California peninsula through Sun. Seas of mainly 4-7 ft in mixed long period swell will prevail through the weekend into early next week. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Tue night and persist through at least Wed night. Winds may approach minimal gale-force by Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in long-period southerly swell mixed with northwest swell through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Norbert. A small, well-defined low pressure system is located near 15.5N130.5W, or more than 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This low is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity due to nearby dry air, with scattered moderate convection noted within 150 nm in the SW quadrant of the low. Because of this dry air, environmental conditions are expected to only be somewhat conducive for development while the low moves toward the west or west-southwest at 10 to 15 kt during the next couple of days. This low has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. The remnant low of Marie is still well defined on satellite imagery as a swirl of low clouds located W of the area near 24N140. Associated conditions E of 140W are 20 kt or less and less than 8 ft. An area of combined seas of 7-9 ft covers the waters mainly S of 10N and W of 100W. This swell event will gradually subside through the upcoming weekend. A weakening cold front is over the NW waters from 30N130W to 27N140W. Associated winds are 20 kt or less S of 30N, however NW-N swell of 8-9 ft has moved in behind the boundary per recent altimeter passes. This swell will decay as it shifts E through Sat. A new set of northerly swell will drop S of 30N by Sun night. This swell event will continue to propagate southward Mon through Tue, with seas of 8-9 ft covering the waters N of 24N between 120W and 135W on Mon, and N of 24N W of 117W with sea heights of 8-10 ft Tue. The swell will subside by early. $$ Lewitsky