000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Oct 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near 13.5N 106.3W at 09/2100 UTC moving NW at 3 kt. A slow northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Norbert is expected to dissipate by Sunday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A small, well-defined low pressure system is located near 16N129W or about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Dry mid-level air is currently inhibiting shower and thunderstorm activity. However, environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for development, and if there is an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity a tropical depression could still form while the low moves toward the west or west-southwest at about 10 kt during the next few days. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. A recent scatterometer pass provided observations of fresh to strong winds within about 120 nm NW quadrant of center. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 96/97W N of 02N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 11N to 13N between 92W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 12N92W, then resumes W of T.D. Norbert from 13N112W to 1008 mb low pressure near 16N129W to 11N132W. The ITCZ axis extends from 11N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 100W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Norbert which is forecast to remain along or just beyond the offshore waters outer boundary. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are expected west of the northern and central Baja California peninsula through Sun. Seas of mainly 4-7 ft in mixed long period swell will prevail through the weekend into early next week. Based on computer models, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Tue night. Winds may reach minimal gale-force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in long-period southerly swell mixed with northwest swell. This swell is forecast to subside slightly this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Norbert and on low pressure located near 16N129W. The remnant low of Marie is still well defined on visible satellite imagery as a swirl of low clouds located near 24N140W. Associated winds have diminished to moderate with lingering seas of 8 ft. Marie is forecast to open up into a trough on Sat just W of the forecast area. An area of combined seas of 7-9 ft covers the waters mainly S of 10N and W of 100W. This swell event will gradually subside through the upcoming weekend. A new set of northwest swell will reach the north waters on Sun, building seas to 8 ft. This swell event will propagate southward Mon through Tue, with seas of 8-9 ft covering the waters N of 24N between 120W and 135W on Mon, and N of 24N W of 117W with sea heights of 8-10 ft. $$ GR