000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091534 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near 13.3N 106.1W at 09/1500 UTC moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 103W and 109W. The depression is moving toward the northwest. A slow NW motion is expected for the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Norbert is expected to dissipate by Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized as dry mid-level air surrounds a small low pressure system located around 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only somewhat conducive for development, but a tropical depression could still form while the low moves toward the west or west-southwest at about 10 kt during the next few days. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 95W N of 02N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N to 14N between 92W and 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 1010 mb low pressure near 12N92W to 13N103W, then resumes W of Norbert from 13N112W to 1008 mb low pressure near 16N128W to 11N132W. The ITCZ axis extends from 11N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 84W to 90W, and from 10N to 12N between 115W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Norbert which is forecast to remain along or just beyond the offshore waters outer boundary. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are expected west of the northern and central Baja California peninsula through Sun. Seas of mainly 4-7 ft in mixed long period swell will prevail through the weekend into early next week. Based on computer models, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin by Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in long-period southerly swell mixed with northwest swell. This swell is forecast to subside slightly this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Norbert and on low pressure located near 16N128W. The remnant low of Marie is located near 24N139W with a pressure of 1008 mb. Associated winds have diminished to moderate to fresh while lingering seas to 8 ft will subside later today as the remnant shifts W of 140W. An area of combined seas of 7-9 ft covers the waters mainly S of 10N and W of 100W. This swell event will gradually subside through the upcoming weekend. A set of fresh northwest swell will reach the north waters on Sun, building seas to 8 ft. This swell event will propagate southward Mon through Tue, with seas of 8-9 ft covering the waters N of 24N between 120W and 135W on Mon, and N of 24N W of 117W with sea heights of 8-10 ft. $$ GR