000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090859 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near 13.2N 106.0W at 09/0900 UTC moving NW at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 102W and 105W, and from 11N to 13N between 105W and 109W. Norbert is forecast to move little, becoming a remnant low by Sat afternoon, then dissipating by early Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A 1008 mb low pressure system is located near 15.5N127W, or around 1000 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the W quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only somewhat conducive for development, but a tropical depression could still form while the low moves toward the west or west-southwest at about 10 kt during the next few days. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 94W/95W N of 02N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N to 14N between 91W and 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to low pressure near 12N92W to 13N103W, then resumes from 13N110W to low pressure near 15.5N127W to 13N131W. The ITCZ axis extends from 13N131W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 82W to 88W, from 10N to 13N between 106W and 109W, and also from 10N to 13N between 115W and 119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Norbert which is forecast to remain along or just beyond the offshore waters outer boundary. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are expected west of the northern and central Baja California peninsula through Sun. Seas of mainly 4-7 ft in mixed long period swell will prevail through the weekend into early next week. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may commence late Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in long-period southerly swell mixed with northwest swell. This swell is forecast to subside slightly this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Norbert and on low pressure near 15.5N126.5W. The remnant low of Marie is located near 24.5N138.5W with a pressure of 1009 mb. Associated winds have diminished to moderate to fresh while lingering seas to 8 ft will subside later today as the remnant shifts W of 140W. An area of combined seas of 7-9 ft covers the waters mainly S of 10N and W of 95W, except extending to 15N between 115W and 125W. This swell will splinter off and decay, becoming confined mainly S of the equator this weekend. A set of fresh northwest swell will propagate into the northwest discussion waters later today with seas building to 8 ft. This swell will slide eastward through Sat night, decaying by early Fri. A new set of NW swell will move into the northern waters by the end of the weekend into early next week building seas to 8 to 9 ft. $$ Lewitsky