000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090246 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near 13.0N 106.0W at 09/0300 UTC moving N at 0 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10.5N to 15N between 105W and 109W. A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to begin on Fri and continue through the weekend. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A 1007 mb low pressure system located near 15.5N126.5W, or more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a relatively small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 24N to 27N between 127W and 129W. Due to dry air surrounding the low, environmental conditions are only somewhat conducive for development, but a tropical depression could still form while the low moves toward the west and west-southwest at about 10 mph during the next few days. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 93W N of 02N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 13N between 92W and 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to low pressure near 12N92W to 13N102W, then resumes W of Norbert near 13N110W to low pressure near 13N116W to low pressure near 15.5N126.5W to 12N131W. The ITCZ axis extends from 12N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 83W and 89W, and from 09N to 11N between 101W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is within 15N120W to 11N113W to 13N111W to 10N107W to 08N109W to 10N116W to 13N123W to 15N120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Norbert which is forecast to remain along or just beyond the offshore waters outer boundary. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are expected west of the northern and central Baja California peninsula through Sun. Seas of mainly 4-7 ft in mixed long period swell will prevail through the weekend into early next week. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may commence late Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, diminishing slightly by Sun, with mainly light to gentle winds N of it the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in long-period southerly swell mixed with northwest swell. This swell is forecast to subside slightly this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Norbert and on low pressure near 15.5N126.5W. The remnant low of Marie is located near 24.5N138W with a pressure of 1008 mb. Fresh to strong winds persist mainly in the NW quadrant along with a larger surrounding area of 8 to 9 ft seas in mixed swell. This feature will shift W of 140W through Fri along with any remaining associated conditions. A large area of combined seas of 8-9 ft covers the waters mainly S of 10N and W of 95W, except extending to 15N between 115W and 125W. This swell will splinter off and decay, becoming confined mainly S of the equator this weekend. A set of fresh northwest swell will propagate into the northwest discussion waters by Fri night with seas building to 8 ft. This swell will slide eastward through Sat night, decaying by early Fri. A new set of NW swell will move into the northern waters by the end of the weekend into early next week building seas to 8 to 9 ft. $$ Lewitsky