000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Oct 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near 13.1N 106.1W or about 365 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico at 08/2100 UTC, and currently stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of its center. Little motion is expected tonight. A slow west-northwest to northwest motion is expected Friday through Saturday. The system is then forecast to meander again later this weekend. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A 1006 mb low is located near 14N126W. Scattered moderate convection is within 135 nm NW quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the low drifts northwestward through this evening, and then turns westward by Friday. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES...Corrected A tropical wave has its axis along 92W N of 02N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 07N between 87W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 12N101W then resumes near 13N110W to 13N117W. The ITCZ begins near 13N117W and continues to 08N140W. For information about convection, see the tropical waves and special features section above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Norbert. Outer seas of 8 to 10 ft will shift northwestward across the far outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico to the west of Manzanillo through Fri. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are expected west of the northern and central Baja California peninsula through Mon, then diminishes through Tue. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere through the period, except over the offshore waters of SW Mexico where moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are forecast Mon evening through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it through the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southeast swell mixed with northwest swell. This swell is forecast to subside slightly this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Norbert and on low pressure near 14N126W. The remnant low of Marie is located near 24N137W with a pressure of 1008 mb. A large surrounding area of seas of 8 ft or greater will gradually subside Fri. The remnant low will shift to the west of 140W by early Fri. A large area of 8 to 10 ft seas in combined long period southerly and northerly swell surrounds the low near 14N125W and extends across the waters south of 15N between 102W and 133W. These seas will gradually decay through the end of the week, at which time they will mainly be confined to south of the equator. South to southwest monsoonal flow may freshen S of the monsoon trough between 95W-115W through the end of the week, helping to build seas to a max of about 8 or 9 ft. A set of fresh northwest swell will propagate into the northern discussion waters east of 135W early next week with seas building to 8 to 9 ft, with 10 ft seas possible along and near 30N. $$ Ramos