000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near 13.2N 106.2W or about 365 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico at 08/1500 UTC, and currently stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-15N between 104W-110W. Little motion is expected today, with a slow west-southwestward to westward motion forecast to begin tonight into Fri. A slightly faster west- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected by this weekend. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A 1006 mb low is located near 14N125W. This low center is within a broad area of low pressure that is located more than 900 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm NW quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the low drifts north-northwestward through Thursday, and then turns westward by Friday. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES...Corrected A tropical wave has its axis along 90W N of 02N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 06N between 86W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 12N102W then resumes near 13N110W to 14N116W. The ITCZ begins near 14N118W and continues to 07N140W. For information about convection, see the tropical waves and special features section above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Norbert. Outer seas of 8 to 10 ft will shift northwestward across the far outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico to the west of Manzanillo through Fri. A surface trough is analyzed from 26N112W to 22N116W while weak high pressure is building northwest of the trough. The trough will linger through the end of the week and into the weekend with moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds to the northwest of this trough, and light to gentle winds SE of the trough N of 20N. Combined seas will be mainly 4-7 ft in long- period southeast to south swell mixed with northwest swell. Seas will build offshore of Baja California Norte early next week in moderate northwest swell. Meanwhile, mainly light to gentle southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish this evening, while associated seas to 8 ft subside. More tranquil marine conditions are forecast for the remainder of the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it through the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southeast swell mixed with northwest swell. This swell is forecast to subside slightly this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Norbert and on low pressure near 14N125W. Post-Tropical remnant low Marie with a pressure of 1006 mb is near 24N137W. Only a few small patches of rain and isolated showers remain well removed from the low center within 60 nm of 27N133W. This activity is quickly decreasing. A large surrounding area of seas of 8 ft or greater will gradually subside Fri. The remnant low will shift to the west of 140W by early Fri. A large area of 8 to 10 ft seas in combined long period southerly and northerly swell surrounds the low near 14N125W and extends across the waters south of 15N between 102W and 133W. These seas will gradually decay through the end of the week, at which time they will mainly be confined to south of the equator. South to southwest monsoonal flow may freshen S of the monsoon trough between 95W-115W through the end of the week, helping to build seas to a max of about 8 or 9 ft. A set of fresh northwest swell will propagate into the northern discussion waters east of 135W early next week with seas building to 8 to 9 ft, with 10 ft seas possible along and near 30N. $$ Ramos