000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081203 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 08 2020 Corrected Tropical Waves section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near 13.2N 106.3W or about 365 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico at 08/0900 UTC moving ESE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has diminished to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows recently developed clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 90 nm of the partially exposed center in the SE quadrant and well to the southeast of the center from 10N to 12N between 104W-106W. Little motion is expected today, with a west- southwestward motion forecast to begin tonight into Fri. A slightly faster westward or west- northwestward motion is expected by this weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A 1006 mb low is located near 14N125W. This low center is within a broad area of low pressure that is located more than 900 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Convection associated with the low remains limited. Over the recent hours, small clusters of scattered moderate type convection have developed within 90 nm northwest of the low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen from 12N to 14N between 125W-127W. Further development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the low drifts north-northwestward through Thu before it begins to track in a westward direction by Fri. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES...Corrected A tropical wave has its axis along 89W from 03N to 16N. It is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is west of the wave to 95W from 10N to 15N and within within 90 nm east of the wave from 10N to 15N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W northwestward to across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua, then west-southwestward to low pressure near 11N93W 1010 mb and to 13N103W, where it briefly ends. It resumes at 13N110W to low pressure near 14N117W 1009 mb to low pressure near 14N125W 1006 mb and to 10N135W, where overnight scatterometer data indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 81W-89W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 114W-116W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 110W-113W and south of the trough within 60 nm of 12N121W and also within 30 nm of 11N120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Norbert. Outer seas of 8 to 10 ft will shift northwestward across the far outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico to the west of Manzanillo through Fri. A surface trough is analyzed from 26N112W to 22N116W while weak high pressure is building northwest of the trough. The trough will linger through the end of the week and into the weekend with moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds to the northwest of this trough, and light to gentle winds SE of the trough N of 20N. Combined seas will be mainly 4-7 ft in long- period southeast to south swell mixed with northwest swell. Seas will build offshore of Baja California Norte early next week in moderate northwest swell. Meanwhile, mainly light to gentle southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish this evening, while associated seas to 8 ft subside. More tranquil marine conditions are forecast for the remainder of the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it through the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southeast swell mixed with northwest swell. This swell is forecast to subside slightly this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Norbert and on low pressure near 14N125W. Post-Tropical remnant low Marie with a pressure of 1006 mb is near 25N137W. Only a few small patches of rain and isolated showers remain well removed from the low center within 60 nm of 27N133W. This activity is quickly decreasing. A very tight gradient between the low and high pressure earlier resulted in gale force winds to materialize in the N and NE quadrants. These winds have recently diminished to fresh to strong speeds. However, the resultant seas are peaking to 14 ft within about 60 nm north of the low. A large surrounding area of seas of 8 ft or greater will gradually subside as well. The remnant low will shift to the west of 140W by early Fri. A large area of 8 to 10 ft seas in combined long period southerly and northerly swell surrounds the low near 14N125W and extends across the waters south of 15N between 102W and 133W. These seas will gradually decay through the end of the week, at which time they will mainly be confined to south of the equator. South to southwest monsoonal flow may freshen S of the monsoon trough between 95W-115W through the end of the week, helping to build seas to a max of about 8 or 9 ft. A set of fresh northwest swell will propagate into the northern discussion waters east of 135W early next week with seas building to 8 to 9 ft, with 10 ft seas possible along and near 30N. $$ Aguirre