000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080852 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Oct 8 2020 Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical remnant low Marie with a pressure of 1005 mb is located near 24N137W. Weakening scattered moderate convection sheared off well to the northeast of the low within 60 nm of 27N134W and 30 nm of 26N134W. A very tight gradient between the low and high pressure earlier resulted in gale force winds to materialize in the N and NE quadrants. These conditions are expected to last for a few hours more before diminishing to strong speeds. Seas associated with these winds are in the 11-16 ft range. Fresh to near gale winds will persist once the gale warning ends later tonight, then will gradually diminish. A large surrounding area of seas of 8 ft or greater will gradually subside as well. The remnant low will shift to the west of 140W by early Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near 13.2N 106.8W at 08/0300 UTC moving S at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection within 30 nm of 15N106W and also within 30 nm of a line from 10N105W to 12N105W and to 13N105W. Little motion is expected tonight, with a southwestward drift expected on Thu, and a slow motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected Fri and Sat. Norbert is forecast to maintain little change in intensity during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A 1006 mb low pressure area is located near 13N124W. Latest satellite imagery shows increasing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 150 nm of the low in the W quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 30 nm of 15N125W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the SE semicircle along with seas in the range of 9-11 ft. Further development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves north-northwestward at around 5 kt. This low has a medium chance for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 88W from 03N to 16N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm east of the wave from 07N to 16N. The tropical wave that earlier wave along 102W is no longer identifiable. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W northwestward to across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua, then west-southwestward to low pressure near 11N93W 1009 mb and to 12N100W where it breaks down. It resumes at 13N110W to low pressure near 14N117W 1008 mb to low pressure near 12N124W 1006 mb and to 12N135W, where earlier scatterometer data indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 80W-84W, and within 30 nm of the trough between 117W-119W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 119W-122W and also within 60 nm of 12N118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Norbert. Outer seas of 8 to 10 ft will shift northwestward across the far outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico to the W of Manzanillo through Fri. A surface trough is analyzed from 26N112W to 22N116W while weak high pressure is building northwest of the trough. The trough will linger through the end of the week and into the weekend with moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds to the northwest of this trough, and light to gentle winds SE of the trough N of 20N. Combined seas will be mainly 4-7 ft in long- period southeast to south swell mixed with northwest swell. Seas will build offshore of Baja California Norte early next week in moderate northwest swell. Meanwhile, mainly light to gentle southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish this evening, while associated seas to 8 ft subside. More tranquil marine conditions are forecast for the remainder of the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it through the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southeast swell mixed with northwest swell. This swell is forecast to subside slightly this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Norbert, on low pressure near 13N124W, and on the Gale Warning associated with the remnant low of Marie. A large area of 8 to 10 ft seas in combined long period southerly and northerly swell surrounds the low near 13N124W and extends across the waters south of 15N between 102W and 133W. These seas will gradually decay through the end of the week, at which time they will mainly be confined to south of the equator. South to southwest monsoonal flow may freshen S of the monsoon trough between 95W-115W through the end of the week, helping to build seas to a max of about 8 or 9 ft. A set of fresh northwest swell will propagate into the northern discussion waters east of 135W early next week with seas building to 8 to 9 ft, with 10 ft seas possible along and near 30N. $$ Aguirre