000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 14.2N 107.1W at 07/1500 UTC moving N at 0 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 104W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 107W and 110W. Norbert is nearly stationary and the storm is expected to move little over the next day or so. A drift to the W to WNW is expected by late this week. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W N of 03N to western Nicaragua, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 84W and 89W. A tropical wave is along 101W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted along and offshore of the SW coast of Mexico just NE of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the Gulf of Fonseca near 13N88W to low pressure near 10.5N94W to 10N99W, then resumes W-SW of Norbert near 13N109W to 14N115W to low pressure near 11.5N125.5W to 11N128W to 13N137W. The ITCZ extends from 13N137W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between western Colombia and 83W, from 09N to 12N between 92W and 95W, and from 10N to 15N between 112W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Norbert. Outer seas of 8 to 10 ft will shift northwestward across the far outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico to the W of Manzanillo through Fri. A surface trough is analyzed from 26N113W to 22N116W while weak high pressure is building NW of the trough. The trough will linger through the end of the week and into the weekend with moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds NW of the trough, and light to gentle winds SE of the trough N of 20N. Combined seas will be mainly 4-7 ft in mixed long period S and NW swell. Seas will build offshore of Baja California Norte by the end of the weekend into early next week in fresh NW swell. Meanwhile, mainly light to gentle southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish tonight, while associated seas of 8 to 9 ft gradually subside. More tranquil marine conditions are forecast for the remainder of the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period S and NW swell, subsiding slightly this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Norbert. Post-Tropical remnant low Marie with a pressure of 1006 mb is located near 23.5N137W. Convection has redeveloped this morning with scattered moderate and isolated strong noted in the NE quadrant between 45 nm and 360 nm. The remnant low will be monitored today in case the convection persists. Fresh to strong winds are in the northern semicircle of the low, along with 10 to 14 ft seas in mixed swell. A larger area of 8 to 11 ft seas surrounds the area of winds. The low will move very slowly westward through the end of the week, reaching 140W by early Fri. Associated winds and seas will diminish and subside by then. A 1008 mb low pressure area is located near 11.5N125.5W. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the SE semicircle. This low will move little through the next few days. A large area of 8 to 10 ft seas in combined long period southerly and northerly swell surrounds the low and extends across the waters S of 14N between 100W and 130W. These seas will gradually decay through the end of the week, becoming confined to S of the equator. There is some indication that winds near the low may increase this weekend as it beings to shift westward into high pressure ridging which would help to re-build associated seas. S-SW monsoonal flow may freshen S of the monsoon trough between 92W and 108W through the end of the week, helping to build seas to 8 to 9 ft. $$ Lewitsky