000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062249 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 22.4N 135.6W at 2100 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Marie is maintaining a large wind field of tropical force winds across northeast quadrant. Marie remains a large swirl of low level clouds, with the only remaining deep convection is a few clusters of scattered moderate convection located some 210-300 nm NE of the center. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low tonight. Winds to 30 kt and a large area of 8 ft plus seas will continue to move westward with Marie through Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 14.4N 106.6W or about 315 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico at 2100 UTC drifting N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. An midday ASCAT pass depicted the winds associated with the cyclone, and revealed a very small area of tropical storm force winds extending only 20-30 nm from the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the center in the NE and within 210 nm across the SW semicircle. Norbert is small cyclone and is forecast to move very little tonight and Wed and then slowly NW through Thu then more westerly into the weekend, and remain along the outer boundary or just outside of the offshore waters of SW Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 84W north of 01N to across northern Panama. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis along 102W from 03N to 16N, moving westward near 10 kt. A small cluster of scattered moderate convection is noted behind the wave from 10N to 14N between 97W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N94W 1009 MB AND TO 11N100W then resumes at 13N112W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N123W 1009 MB TO 12N122W. The ITCZ extends from 11N137W to beyond the area at 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to the coast between 80W and 87W, and also within within 90 nm N and 240 nm S of the trough between 112W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Norbert. Seas of 8-10 ft will shift NW across the far outer offshore waters of SW Mexico to the west of Manzanillo through Thu. As Marie continues to move westward over the far western section of the area, a ridge will finally establish over the offshore waters of Baja California bringing gentle to moderate NW-N winds with seas of 5-7 ft. As it is normal for this time of the year, mainly light to gentle southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Northerly gap winds have diminished to below gale force across and downstream of the Gulf this morning, and will further weaken to strong speeds late this morning through early Wed. Seas of 10-14 ft will slowly subside through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds north of it. Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Marie that is weakening over cooler waters and on Tropical Storm Norbert. Outside of Marie, gentle to moderate winds are occurring N of the monsoon while moderate to locally fresh winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas greater than 8 ft, generated by Marie cover most of the waters N of 10N and W of a line from 28N130W to 10N135W. Long-period southeast swell from the Southern Hemisphere has reached north to near 10N and between 100W-130W. This swell will continue to propagate northward to near 13N by late Wed, Post-Tropical Storm Gamma located along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to produce heavy rainfall through mid-week over portions of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result in significant flash flooding. $$ Stripling