000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061647 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 22.1N 135.1W at 1500 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The 0516Z ASCAT revealed a large wind field of tropical force winds northwest through northeast of the center of Marie. Marie remains a large swirl of low level clouds, with the only remaining deep convection is a cluster of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection located some 180-240 nm NE of the center. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low later today. Winds to 30 kt and a large area of 8 ft plus seas will continue to move westward with Marie through tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 14.2N 106W or about 315 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico at 1500 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. An ASCAT pass from 0516Z nicely depicted the winds associated with the cyclone. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and within 90 NM of the center in the SW quadrant. Norbert is small cyclone and is forecast to move very slowly NW through Thu then more westerly into the weekend, and remain along the outer boundary or just outside of the offshore waters of SW Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gap winds have diminished to below gale force across and downstream of the Gulf this morning, and will further weaken to strong speeds late this morning through early Wed. Seas of 10-14 ft will slowly subside through Wed. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 83W north of 01N to across northern Panama. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to the coast between 82W and 87W. A tropical wave has its axis along 101W from 03N to 16N, moving westward near 10 kt. A small cluster of scattered moderate to strong convection is noted behind the wave from 11N to 13,5N between 96W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N77W to low pressure near 11N94W 1008 mb and to 12N105W. It resumes at 14N110W to low pressure near 11N122W 1008 mb and to 12N126W. The ITCZ extends from 12N135W to beyond the area at 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 113W-117W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 119W-122W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 117W-119 and between 123W-126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for more details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Norbert and on the ending of a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. As Marie continues to move westward over the far western section of the area, a ridge will finally establish over the offshore waters of Baja California bringing gentle to moderate NW-N winds with seas of 5-7 ft. As it is normal for this time of the year, mainly light to gentle southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds north of it. Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through this evening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Marie that is rapidly weakening over cooler waters and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Norbert. Outside of Marie, gentle to moderate winds are occurring N of the monsoon while moderate to locally fresh winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas greater than 8 ft, generated by Marie cover most of the waters N of 10N and W of a line from 30N120W to 20N124W to 10N130W. Long-period southeast swell as from the Southern Hemisphere has reached north to near 10N and between 100W-121W. This swell will continue to propagate northward to near 13N by late Wed, Post-Tropical Storm Gamma located along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to produce heavy rainfall through mid-week over portions of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result in significant flash flooding. $$ Stripling