296 AXPZ20 KNHC 042033 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Oct 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Marie is centered near 20.3N 129.5W at 04/2100 UTC moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center NE semicircle. This Category 1 hurricane is forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward with a gradually reduction in forward speed over the next few days. Marie should weaken to a tropical storm tonight, then become a tropical depression Tue night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northerly winds between a ridge across the western Gulf of Mexico and T.S. Gamma now located just N of the Yucatan peninsula will continue to support gale force gap winds across the Tehuantepec region. Gale force winds are expected to blow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to near 13N-14N through Mon night. Seas will peak again near 15-18 ft tonight into Mon morning. This gap wind is forecast to persist into mid-week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little since yesterday in association with the 1008 mb low pressure centered near 11N105W. This afternoon, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center of this low. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves slowly northwestward. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 98W N of 03N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 87W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to a 1008 mb low pres near 11N104W to 14N120W, then resumes W of Hurricane Marie near 13N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N E of 85W to the coast of Colombia and from 07N to 14N between 110W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California under a weak pressure gradient. A ridge will establish again over the area on Mon, bringing moderate NW winds, mainly offshore Baja California del Norte. Light to gentle southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it. Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador into Tue night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early this week. Thereafter, and development will be slow to occur while it drifts northward offshore of the coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. This system has a low chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Marie that is rapidly weakening over cooler waters and low pressure well southwest of southern Mexico that could develop into a tropical depression over the next few days. Outside of Hurricane Marie, gentle to moderate winds are occurring N of the monsoon trough to about 28N, and gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Currently, seas greater than 8 ft, generated by Marie cover most of the waters N of 10N and W of 115W. Long period SE swell from the Southern Hemisphere is forecast to reach the equator late tonight. Tropical Storm Gamma located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Central America. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. $$ KONARIK