000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041519
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Marie is centered near 20.3N 128.6W at 04/1500 UTC
moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within
180 nm of the center NE semicircle. This Category 1 hurricane is
forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward 
with a gradually reduction in forward speed over the next few
days. Marie should weaken to a tropical storm tonight, then
become a tropical depression Tue. Please read the latest NHC 
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml 
and Forecast/ Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northerly winds
between a ridge across the western Gulf of Mexico and T.S. Gamma
now located just N of the Yucatan peninsula will continue to 
support gale force gap winds across the Tehuantepec region. Gale
force winds are expected to blow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
and downwind to near 13N-14N through Mon night. Seas will peak 
again near 15-18 ft Sun night into Mon morning. This gap wind 
event is forecast to persist into mid-week. Please read the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml 
for more details.

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association
with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred 
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it 
moves slowly northwestward. This system has a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Locally strong winds
are already occurring in association with this low, centered near
11N104W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 97W N of 03N, moving W at 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N 
to 14N between 87W and 98W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to a 1008 mb low 
pres near 11N101W to 13N117W, then resumes W of Hurricane Marie 
near 13N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 04N to 07N E of 83W to the coast of Colombia and 
from 08N to 14N between 112W and 119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for more on the ongoing Gulf
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle 
winds will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California under a weak pressure gradient. A ridge will establish
again over the area on Mon, bringing moderate NW winds, mainly 
offshore Baja California del Norte. Light to gentle southerly 
winds are expected in the Gulf of California into Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of 
the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it. 
Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec 
region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador through Tue.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form south-southeast
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early this week. Gradual development 
of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts northward 
offshore of the coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. This system has a
low chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information 
on Hurricane Marie that is rapidly weakening over cooler waters
and low pressure well southwest of southern Mexico that could
develop into a tropical depression over the next few days.

Outside of Hurricane Marie, gentle to moderate winds are
occurring N of the monsoon trough to about 28N, and gentle to 
moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Currently, seas 
greater than 8 ft, generated by Marie cover most of the waters N 
of 10N and W of 115W. Long period SE swell from the Southern 
Hemisphere is forecast to reach the equator late tonight. 

Tropical Storm Gamma located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula
is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over 
portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Central
America. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions 
of southeastern Mexico and Central America.

$$
KONARIK