000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031504 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Category Four Hurricane Marie is centered near 18.4N 126.9W at 03/1500 UTC moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Marie is expected to continue moving NW this weekend, before curving WNW early next week. Hurricane Marie should begin to weaken later today and will likely become a tropical storm by Sun night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the western Gulf of Mexico and eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico combined with Tropical Storm Gamma in the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds over the Bay of Campeche. These winds are funneling through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, producing gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region. These gale force gap winds will persist into Mon night as T.S. Gamma moves just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect the strongest winds of 35-40 kt during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will peak near 16-17 ft this morning, then will gradually subside to below 12 ft through Mon night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 91W N of 03N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this wave from 09N to 14N between 82W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N86W to a 1008 mb low pres near 08N101W to 13N112W, then resumes W of Hurricane Marie near 12N126W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N E of 82W and from 09N to 14W between 100W and 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California under a weak pressure gradient. By Mon night, a ridge will establish again over the area, bringing gentle to moderate NW winds, mainly offshore Baja California del Norte. Seas generated by Hurricane Marie will continue to spread across the waters W of Baja California through Sun. Light to gentle southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California through the start of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it. Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through the beginning of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week, offshore Guatemala. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it drifts near or south of the southern coast of Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on Category Four Hurricane Marie. Outside of Major Hurricane Marie, a weak ridge prevails over the NW corner of the forecast area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and Marie is maintaining gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough to about 28N, and gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon trough. The large size of Hurricane Marie will generate a large area of seas greater than 8 ft which will spread well away from the cyclone center. By this afternoon, seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N of 10N and W of 115W. Long period SE swell from the Southern Hemisphere is forecast to reach the equator by early Mon. An area of low pressure is expected to form within this weekend several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northwestward. There is a low chance of tropical formation with this system over the next 5 days. $$ KONARIK