000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021507 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Category Four Hurricane Marie is centered near 16.5N 124.3W at 02/1500 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Additional strengthening is expected today, with weakening forecast to begin on Saturday. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm of center in the east semicircle and 120 nm of center in the west semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the western Gulf of Mexico and eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico combined with newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty- Five in the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds over the Bay of Campeche. These winds are funneling through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, producing strong gale force winds of 35-40 kt in the Tehuantepec region. These gap winds are forecast to persist through Sat, with minimal gale conditions prevailing into Mon night. Seas will peak near 15-18 ft during this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N106W, then resumes W of Major Hurricane Marie near 10N127W to 09N136W. The ITCZ is from 09N136W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 85W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 12N to 16N between 114W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California under a weak pressure gradient. By Mon night, a ridge will establish again over the area, bringing gentle to moderate NW winds. Seas generated by Hurricane Marie will continue to spread across the waters W of Baja California into the weekend. Gentle southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it. Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on Major Hurricane Marie. Outside of Hurricane Marie, a weak ridge prevails over the NW corner of the forecast area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and Hurricane is maintaining gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough to about 25N, and gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon trough. An area of fresh to strong SW is noted based on scatterometer data to the S of Marie from 07N to 11N between 117W and 127W. The large size of Hurricane Marie will generate a large area of seas greater than 8 ft which will spread well away from the cyclone center. By Saturday, seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N of 10N and W of 115W. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico this weekend. Some development of this system is possible early next week while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. $$ KONARIK