288 AXPZ20 KNHC 020317 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Marie is centered near 15.6N 122.1W at 02/0300 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 NM of center. Numerous moderate isolated strong is to the S of center from 12N to 15N between 120W and 124W. Scattered moderate isolated strong is seen elsewhere within 150 N and 210 NM S semicircles of center. Marie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico combined with a developing tropical disturbance in the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds over the Bay of Campeche. These winds are funneling through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, producing strong gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region. This gap wind event is forecast to persist through Sat night, with gale conditions possible again Sun night through Mon night. Seas will peak near 14-17 ft during this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N105W, then resumes W of Hurricane Marie near 10N126W to 09N135W. The ITCZ is from 09N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 81W and 88W, from 10N to 15N between 93W to 102W, and from 13N to 18N between 110W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale for gap wind event. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate N to NW winds off the coast of Baja California will continue through the next few days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwesterly winds will increase to fresh this weekend. Seas generated by gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through the next couple of days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Marie. Outside of Hurricane Marie, a weak pressure gradient prevails west of 120W which is maintaining gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough to 20N and gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon trough. NW swell in the NW part of the discussion waters will subside to below 8 ft by Fri morning. The large size of Hurricane Marie will generate a large area of seas greater than 8 ft which will spread well away from the cyclone center. By Saturday, seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N of 10N and W of 115W. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico this weekend. Some development of this system is possible early next week while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. $$ GR