000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012112
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2010 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Marie is centered near 15.1N 120.9W at 01/2100 UTC 
moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm N
semicircle and 150 nm S semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center in the
southern semicircle and 150 nm NW quadrant. Marie is forecast to
continue on a west-northwestward track through the next few days
while intensifying. The current forecast has Marie becoming a 
major hurricane later today or tonight. Please read the latest 
NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for 
more details. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern 
Pacific monsoon trough is supporting near gale force winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will resume this evening, 
then continue through early Sat and seas will peak near 14-17 ft 
during this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N97W to 09N103W to 
12N111W, then resumes W of Hurricane Marie near 11N124W to 
10N134W. The ITCZ is from 10N134W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between
79W and 88W, from 06N to 16N between 93W to 102W and from 13N to
18N between 110W and 113W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec 
gale for gap wind event. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate N to NW 
winds off the coast of Baja California will continue through the 
next few days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate southwesterly winds will increase to fresh this weekend.
Seas generated by gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region
will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala through 
the next couple of days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information 
on Hurricane Marie.

Outside of Hurricane Marie, a weak pressure gradient prevails
west of 120W which is maintaining gentle to moderate winds N of
the monsoon trough to 20N and gentle to moderate winds S of the
monsoon trough. NW swell in the NW discussion waters will
subside to below 8 ft by Fri morning. The large size of 
Hurricane Marie will generate a large area of seas greater than 8
ft which will spread well away from the cyclone center. By 
Saturday, seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N 
of 10N and W of 115W. By the start of next week, low pressure may
form well west of southern Mexico and has a low chance of 
tropical development early next week.

$$
HAGEN/KONARIK