000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011546 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Marie is centered near 15.2N 119.5W at 01/1500 UTC moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. Marie is forecast to continue on a west-northwestward track through the next few days while intensifying. The current forecast has Marie becoming a major hurricane today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is supporting near gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will resume this evening, then continue through early Sat and seas will peak near 15-18 ft during this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N103W to 13N110W, then resumes W of Hurricane Marie near 11N124W to 11N135W. The ITCZ is from 11N135W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 93W and 99W, and from 08N to 17N between 104W and 112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale for gap wind event. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds off the coast of Baja California will continue through the next few days. Swell generated from Hurricane Marie will impact the offshore waters well off of Baja California Sur, with seas up to 8 ft impacting these waters into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds will increase to fresh this weekend S of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas generated by gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala through the next couple of days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Marie. Outside of Hurricane Marie, a weak pressure gradient prevails west of 120W which is maintaining gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough to 20N and gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon trough. NW swell has propagated into the NW discussion waters. Seas will peak near 9 ft with this swell before subsiding Friday. The large size of Hurricane Marie will generate a large area of seas greater than 8 ft which will spread well away from the cyclone center. By Saturday, seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N of 10N and W of 115W. By the start of next week, low pressure may form well west of southern Mexico and has a medium chance of tropical development early next week. $$ HAGEN/KONARIK