000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010301
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Oct 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Marie is centered near 14.5N 116.5W at 01/0300 UTC
moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80kt. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of 
center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
elsewhere from 07N to 19N between 112W and 123W. Marie is 
forecast to contiue on a west- northwestward track through the 
next several days while intensifying. The current forecast has 
Marie becoming a major hurricane by late Thursday. Please read 
the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for 
more details. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern 
Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale force winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will continue through early Sat
with seas will peak near 15-18 ft during this event. Swell
generated from this event has reached beyond 100W. Please read 
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N93W to 14N105W, 
then resumes W of Hurricane Marie near 11N125W to 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
05N to 13N between 81W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 16N between 100W and 110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec 
gale for gap wind event.

Gentle to moderate N to NW winds off the coast of Baja 
California will continue through the next few days. Swell
generated from Hurricane Marie will impact the offshore waters of
the Baja California peninsula. Seas greater than 8 ft will impact
these waters through early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate southerly winds increase to fresh this weekend S of the
monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. 
Seas generated by gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region 
will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala through 
the next few days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information 
on Hurricane Marie.

Outside of Hurricane Marie, a weak pressure gradient prevails
west of 120W which is maintaining gentle to moderate winds N of
the monsoon trough to 20N and gentle to moderate winds S of the
monsoon trough. NW swell has propagated into the NW discussion 
waters. Seas will peak near 9 ft with this swell before 
subsiding Friday. As Hurricane Marie strengthens into a major 
hurricane, the size of the system will generate a large area of 
seas greater than 8 ft spreading well away from the cyclone 
center. By Saturday, seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of 
the waters N of 08N and W of 115W.


$$
AL