000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272156 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2110 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 97W-98W N of 03N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 09N to 17.5N between 96W and 102W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W N of 03N, moving westward at 10 kt. Associated convection described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73W to 10N83W to 12N95W to low pres near 12.5N104W 1011 mb to 10.5N130W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12.5N between 80W and 95W, and from 07N to 1.52N between 108W and 137W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09.5N to 14.5N between 103W and 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the region for the next few days. Northwesterly swell propagating through the waters off Baja California the past 48 hours has peaked and has begin to subside this afternoon. However, new north swell is moving into the northern waters this afternoon, and maintaining seas of 7-9 ft. Light to gentle southerly winds prevail across the Gulf of California this afternoon and will continue through Mon afternoon before shifting to the north. Elsewhere, Light to gentle winds are generally expected across the waters from Las Tres Marias to Puerto Angel for the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong gale force gap wind event is expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night through Thu as cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, marine guidance suggests N winds blasting across the Tehuantepec waters late Tue afternoon and quickly increasing to 30 to 45 kt Tue night with seas building up to 16 or 17 ft. Of note, the 20-year climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5 storm force-events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec each cold season. Most gale-force events occurred during November and December, while most storm-force winds occurred in January. Based on latest model trends and the present evolving synoptic scale setup, it appears that the forecast gale to near strong force wind event may supersede the previously recorded earliest start date of October 3rd. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently 5 to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell. Long period SW swell is moving into the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands this afternoon, building seas to 8 ft. This swell will continue to propagate northward and reach the offshore waters of Central America tonight through Mon, where seas will also build to 6 to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1013 mb remnant low of former tropical cyclone Lowell is centered near 22N141.5W, and has moved west of the area. High pressure centered due north of this low near 34N, is aiding in maintaining a zone of strong easterly winds of 20 to 25 kt in the northern semicircle of the low. Seas are 10-12 ft in a combination of locally generated wind waves mixing with long period NW swell. Conditions will improve Mon as the remnants of Lowell shift further W of 140W and as the remaining northerly swell decays. Elsewhere west of 120W, moderate N to NE winds prevail with seas 7-9 ft in new NW to N swell. Southerly swell has propagated N of the equator, where seas will build to 8-10 ft between 100W and 120W today into Mon. Seas will gradually subside across the waters S of 20N and E of 120W by the middle of the week. $$ Stripling