000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271604
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Sep 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 97W N of 03N, moving 
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is from 09N to 17.5N between 92W and 102W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W N of 03N, moving 
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection described below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 09.5N81W to 13N97W to 
10N123W to 10N130W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 78W and 91W, 
and from 07.5N to 12N between 108W and 140W. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is noted from 09.5N to 12.5N between 102W 
and 108W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge west of Baja California will maintain gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds across the region for the next few days. 
Northwesterly swell propagating through the waters off Baja 
California the past 48 hours has peaked and will begin to 
subside today into Mon. Light to gentle winds are generally 
expected across the waters from Las Tres Marias to Puerto Angel 
for the next several days.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong gale force gap wind event is 
expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night through Thu as
cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, marine 
guidance suggests N winds of 30 to 45 kt and seas building up to 
16 or 17 ft Tue night.

Of note, the 20-year climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind
events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5 
storm force-events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec each cold 
season. Most gale-force events occurred during November and 
December, while most storm-force winds occurred in January. Based
on latest model trends and the present evolving synoptic scale 
setup, it appears that the forecast gale to near strong force 
wind event may supersede the previously recorded earliest start 
date of October 3rd.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, with 
gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are 
currently 5 to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell. 
Long period SW swell will impact the waters between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands today, building seas to 8 ft. This swell 
event will continue to propagate northward reaching the offshore 
waters of Central America by early next week, with seas building 
to 6 to 8 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Lowell is centered
near 22N139.5W, Moving due west. High pressure is centered due
north of this low near 34N, and aiding in maintaining a zone of
strong easterly winds 20 to 25 kt in the northern semicircle of 
the low. Seas are 10-12 ft in a combination of locally generated
wind waves mixing with long period NW swell. The remnant low 
will continue to shift westward, moving west of the area today. 
Elsewhere west of 120W, moderate N to NE winds prevail with seas
7-9 ft in fading NW to N swell. Conditions will improve Mon
through Tue as the remnants of Lowell shift W of 140W and as the
remaining northerly swell decays.

Southerly swell has propagated N of the equator, seas will 
build to 8-10 ft between 100W and 120W today into Mon. Seas will
gradually subside across the waters S of 20N and E of 120W the
middle of next week.

$$
Stripling