353 AXPZ20 KNHC 270840 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Sep 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W/97W N of 03N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W/107W N of 03N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 13N96W to 10N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 15N between 91W and 99W, and from 09N to 13N between 103W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the region. Northwesterly swell propagating across the waters off Baja California will begin to subside today into Mon. Light to gentle winds are expected farther south the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong gale force gap wind event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of next week. Currently, marine guidance suggests N winds of 30 to 45 kt and seas building up to 16 or 17 ft by Tue night. Of note, the 20-year climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5 storm-events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per cold season. Most gale-force events occurred during November and December, while most storm-force winds occurred in January. Based on latest model trends and the present evolving synoptic scale setup, it appears that the forecast gale to near strong force wind event may replace the previously recorded earliest start date of October 3rd. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently 5 to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell. Long period SW swell will impact the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today, building seas to 8 ft. This swell event will continue to propagate northward reaching the offshore waters of Central America by early next week, with seas building to 6 to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Lowell is centered near 21N137W, with winds of 20 to 25 kt in the northern semicircle of the low. Seas continue to peak near 13 ft in a combination of locally generated seas mixing with long period NW swell. The remnant low will continue to shift westward, moving west of the area today. Seas in the vicinity of the remnant low will remain in the 8 to 12 ft range today. Conditions will improve early next week as the remnants of Lowell shift W of 140W and as the remaining northerly swell decays. Southerly swell has propagated N of the equator, seas will build to 8-10 ft between 100W and 120W today into Mon. Seas will gradually subside across the waters S of 20N and E of 120W the middle of next week. $$ AL