000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Sep 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-tropical cyclone Lowell is centered near 21.6N 130.5W at 25/2100 UTC moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Isolated showers are within 210 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. A general westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is anticipated into early next week. Continued weakening is expected until the remnants dissipate next week. Please read the final NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W N of 03N, moving westward at 15 kt. Convection is described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W N of 03N, moving westward at 15 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from western Colombia near 09N77W to 13N94W to 15N104W to 11N116W to 13N127W to 11N133W. The ITCZ continues from 11N133W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 77W and 87W, from 08N to 15N between 91W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 114W and 126W, and from 10N to 12N between 137W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak ridging is west of Baja California, maintaining moderate NW to N winds across the region. Seas are increasing now offshore of Baja California Norte, as northwesterly swell is moving in, with a recent altimeter pass showing seas of 8 to 9 feet. This northwesterly swell will spread southward to the remainder of the Baja California offshore waters through Sat night. This swell will decay Sun through early next week. Light to gentle winds are expected farther south the next several days, except pulsing moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Otherwise, seas of 4-7 ft are expected through the early part of the weekend, building slightly to 5-8 ft in long period NW swell thereafter. Looking ahead, a significant gap wind event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec next week, beginning Tue with winds increasing to at least near gale force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently 5 to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell. Long period southerly to southwesterly swell will impact the waters W of Ecuador by the end of this weekend, spreading to the waters west of Central America by early next week with seas building to 6 to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Post- tropical cyclone Lowell. NW swell is propagating SE across the NW and N central waters with seas of 8-13 ft. Seas in that area will remain 8-12 ft this weekend as this swell and swell generated by Tropical Storm Lowell prevail. Conditions will improve early next week as the remnants of Lowell shift W of 140W and as the remaining northerly swell decays. Southerly swell will propagate N of the equator this weekend, building seas to 8-10 ft between 100W and 130W. These seas will gradually decay early next week. $$ Hagen