000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Sep 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 21.6N 129.2W at 25/1500 UTC moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is between 45 nm and 150 nm in the NE quadrant of Lowell. A general westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is anticipated into early next week. Gradual weakening is expected. Lowell will likely become a post-tropical remnant low later today or early Sat. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W N of 03N, moving westward at 20 kt. Convection is described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W N of 03N, moving westward at 15 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from western Colombia near 07N78W to 12N93W to 15N103W to 12N113W to 11N132W. The ITCZ continues from 11N135W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 78W and 84W, from 09N to 14N between 89W and 99W, and from 06N to 13N between 112W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 137W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak ridging is between northern Baja California and Tropical Storm Lowell, which is located well W of the area. This is maintaining moderate NW to N winds across the region with seas to 6 ft. Northwesterly swell west of Baja California Norte is beginning to spread southward and will continue through Sat night. This swell will decay Sun through early next week. Light to gentle winds are expected farther south the next several days, except pulsing moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at night. Otherwise, seas of 4-7 ft are expected through the early part of the weekend, building slightly to 5-8 ft in long period NW swell thereafter. Looking ahead, a significant gap wind event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec next week, beginning Tue night with winds increasing to at least near gale force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently 5 to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell. Long period southerly swell will impact the waters W of Ecuador by the end of this weekend into early next week with seas building to 6 to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Lowell. NW swell is propagating SE across the NW and N central waters with seas of 8-12 ft. Seas in that area will remain 8-12 ft this weekend as this swell and swell generated by Tropical Storm Lowell prevail. Conditions will improve early next week as the remnants of Lowell shift W of 140W and as the remaining northerly swell decays. Southerly swell will propagate N of the equator this weekend, building seas to 8-10 ft between 100W and 130W. These seas will gradually decay early next week. $$ Lewitsky