000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242148 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Sep 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 21.7N 125.8W at 24/2100 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate within 120 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. A westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected for the next several days. Lowell is forecast to become a tropical depression on Fri and a remnant low early Sat. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to 10N95W to 12N104W to 11N108W, then continues S of Lowell near 16N123W to 11N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 77W and 86W, from 07N to 15N between 86W and 101W, from 08N to 14N between 101W and 109W, and also from 11N to 14N between 121W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak ridging is between northern Baja California and Tropical Storm Lowell located well W of the area now. This is maintaining moderate NW to N winds across the region with seas to 6 ft. Northwesterly swell will reach the northern Baja California peninsula late tonight, spreading SE-S Fri through Sat night, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. This swell will decay Sun through early next week. Light to gentle winds are expected farther south the next several days, except pulsing northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at night. Otherwise, seas of 4-7 ft are expected through the early part of the weekend, building slightly to 5-8 ft in long period NW swell thereafter. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh southerly flow winds prevail S of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently 5 to 8 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell. Winds will diminish to moderate S of the monsoon trough by early Fri with seas subsiding slightly. Long period southerly swell will impact the waters W of Ecuador by the end of this weekend into early next week with seas building to 6 to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Lowell. A front just NW of the area is stalling and will remain N of 30N140W. Associated NW swell from the front is already propagating SE into the waters with seas of 8-12 ft. Seas in that area will remain 8-12 ft this weekend as swell generated by Tropical Storm Lowell filters into the area. Conditions will improve early next week as the remnants of Lowell shift W of 140W and as the remaining northerly swell decays. $$ Hagen