000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 20.7N 122.1W at 23/2100 UTC, moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 130 nm southwest of the center. Lowell will continue moving toward the west-northwest through this afternoon. A westward motion is expected to begin this evening and continue into the weekend. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next day or so, with slow weakening expected to begin on Thursday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... None. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 11N98W to 08N112W. The monsoon trough continues SW of Lowell near 15N123W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is close to the monsoon trough off the Central American coast from 05N to 11N between 77W to 92W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 15N between 92W to 115W and from 08N to 15N between 120W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak riding is between the Baja California coast and Tropical Storm Lowell. This is maintaining light to gentle north to northeast winds across this region with seas to 7 ft. By Thursday, moderate northerly winds are expected off the Baja California coast with seas up to 6 ft. On Friday, northerly swell will approach the coast down to Baja California Sur and continue through late Saturday night with seas 8 to 11 ft. Farther south, moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to subside later this afternoon. Light winds can be expected through the rest of the week and into the weekend with seas to 5 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate south to southwest winds prevail south of 11N and the monsoon trough with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell. Winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to fresh tonight through Thursday with seas up to 8 ft. By Friday, moderate south to southwesterly winds will return with seas 6-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient between the subtropical ridge and TS Lowell is supporting moderate trades south of 25N with fresh south to southeasterly winds south of 09N and west of 125W. By tonight, moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough and last through the weekend. A cold front will stall well to the NW of 30N late tonight. Associated NW swell will move into the far NW waters, raising seas to 8-12 ft tonight through Fri. By the weekend, seas are expected to be 8-10 ft. $$ AReinhart