000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231607 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Sep 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on |1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 20.0N 120.6W at 23/1500 UTC, moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 170 nm south of the center, and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the center. Lowell is forecast to continue moving west-northwest through today, then turn toward the west by early Thursday and continue into the weekend. Slow strengthening is possible through Thu night.Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, with slow weakening expected to begin by late Friday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... None. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W to 11N93W to 11N112W. The monsoon trough continues SW of Lowell near 14N126W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 77W to 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 124W to 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient induced by weak ridging between Baja California and 130W is supporting moderate north to northeast winds west of Baja California Norte with combined seas to 6 ft. Little change in winds is expected today offshore of Baja California. Large seas on the eastern periphery of Tropical Storm Lowell can be expected today across the offshore waters. Farther south, winds will subside across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by this afternoon. A weak pressure pattern across the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, strong northwest swell from a cold front forecast to stall across the NW waters will arrive across the Baja California waters late Fri, and build seas to 7-11 ft on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue south of 11N and the monsoon trough. Gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently 4-5 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell. Winds south of the monsoon trough will become fresh tonight and Thu, increasing seas to 8-9 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the tropics is supporting moderate trades south of 24N. The ridge will build southward, west of TS Lowell through Thu. Farther east, persistent long-period southwesterly swell along the monsoon trough between 114W and 119W is producing seas to 8 ft in the area. Looking ahead, a cold front will stall just NW of the discussion area late tonight. Associated NW swell will move into the far NW waters, raising seas to 8-13 ft tonight through Thu night. $$ AReinhart