000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230911 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 19.8N 119.9W at 0900 UTC, moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 200 nm south of the center, and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the center. Lowell is forecast to continue moving west-northwest, then turn toward the west later today. Slow strengthening is possible through Thu night. A weakening trend is expected to begin by Friday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... None. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 12N92W to 10N100W to 10N112W. The ITCZ extends from 12N128W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 88W and 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 91W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient induced by weak ridging between Baja California and 130W is supporting moderate north to northeast winds west of Baja California Norte with combined seas to 6 ft. Little change in winds is expected today offshore of Baja California. Large seas on the eastern periphery of Tropical Storm Lowell can be expected during the next 36 hours across the offshore waters. Farther south, winds are expected to decrease across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this morning. A weak pressure pattern across the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, strong northwest swell from a cold front forecast to stall across the NW waters will arrive across the Baja California waters late Fri, and build seas to 7-10 ft on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue south of 11N and the monsoon trough. Gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5-6 ft range in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell. Winds south of the monsoon trough will become fresh tonight and Thu, increasing seas to 7-8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the tropics is supporting moderate trades south of 24N. The ridge will build southward, west of TS Lowell through Thu. Farther east, persistent long-period southwesterly swell along the monsoon trough between 114W and 119W is producing seas to 8 ft in the area. Looking ahead, a cold front will stall just NW of the discussion area late tonight. Associated NW swell will move into the far NW waters, raising seas to 8-13 ft tonight through Thu night. $$ Mundell