000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222219 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 19.2N 117.9W at 2100 UTC, moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 300 nm of the center in the SW semicircle. Lowell is forecast to continue moving west-northwest through Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west. Little change in strength is expected through Wednesday. Slow strengthening is possible Wednesday night through Thursday night. A weakening trend is expected to begin by late Friday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... None. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 09N84W to 09N98W to 13N110W, then resumes SW of Lowell near 15N120W to 11N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 81W to 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 16W between 122W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient induced by weak deep layer ridging between Baja California and 130W is supporting mainly moderate north to northeast winds off Baja California Norte with combined seas to 6 ft. Little change in winds is expected through Wed offshore of Baja California, except for the far outer waters SW of Cabo San Lucas where much high winds and seas on the eastern periphery of Tropical Storm Lowell can be expected. Southerly swell from Lowell will raise seas slightly during the next 48 hours across the offshore waters. Farther south, fresh winds will pulse to strong at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through the next couple of days. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern across the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Looking ahead, strong northwest swell from a cold front forecast to stall across the NW waters will arrive across the Baja California waters late Fri and build seas to 7-10 ft by midday Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue south of roughly 10N and the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5-6 ft range in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell. Winds south of the monsoon trough will become fresh late Wed and Thu and raise seas to 7-8 ft there. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure in the tropics is allowing for generally moderate trades south of 24N to exist well into the deep tropics. The ridge will build southward toward 20N and to the west of Lowell through mid- week. Farther east, seas of 8-9 ft are within an area along the monsoon trough between 114W-119W. These seas are a result of the fresh to strong southwest to west winds that are occurring in the southern part of the broad cyclonic circulation associated to Tropical Storm Lowell. In addition, persistent long-period southwesterly is present within this area as well further contributing to the build up of these seas. Looking ahead, a cold front will stall just NW of the discussion area late Wed. Associated NW swell will move into the far NW waters, raising seas to 8 ft and greater Wed night into Thu. $$ Stripling