000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221626 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Sep 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 18.4N 116.6W at 1500 UTC, or about 465 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW or 290 deg at 11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Enhanced infra-red satellite imagery shows that Lowell remains a sheared system, with no well defined banding features. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm across the SW semicircle of Lowell. An overnight altimeter data pass revealed seas up to 8 ft east of Lowell to near 107W and from 13N to 18N, mainly due to the persistent fetch of fresh to strong southeast to south winds across the southeast semicircle. Lowell is forecast to maintain its current motion through the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave previously along 140W has moved west of the area. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Colombia near 10N74W to 09N87W to 09N100W to 13N110W, then resumes SW of Lowell near 15N120W to 10N132W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 14N between 79W and 110W. E of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 124W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient induced by weak deep layer ridging between Baja California and 130W is supporting mainly moderate north to northeast winds off Baja California Norte with combined seas to 6 ft. Little change in winds is expected through Wed offshore of Baja California, except for the far outer waters SW of Cabo SanLucas where much high winds and seas on the periphery of Tropical Storm Lowell can be expected. Southerly swell from Lowell will raise seas slightly during the next 48 hours across the offshore waters. Farther south, fresh winds will pulse to strong at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through the next couple of days. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern across the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue south of roughly 10N and the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5-6 ft range in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure in the tropics is allowing for generally moderate trades south of 24N to exist well into the deep tropics. The ridge will build southward some north of 20N and to the west of Lowell through mid-week. Farther east, seas of 8-9 ft are within an area along the monsoon trough between 114W-119W. These seas are a result of the fresh to strong southwest to west winds that are occurring in the southern part of the broad cyclonic circulation associated to Tropical Storm Lowell. In addition, persistent long-period southwesterly is present within this area as well further contributing to the build up of these seas. Looking ahead, a cold front will stall just NW of the discussion area late Wed. Associated NW swell will move into the far NW waters, raising seas to 8 ft and greater Wed night into Thu. $$ Stripling