000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 17.4N 113.6W at 21/2100 UTC or about 390 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving west-northwest at 14 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 11N to 18N between 113W-118W. A turn toward the west is expected on Wednesday. Slow strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and Lowell could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday or Wednesday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Seventeen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 03N-18N with axis near 137W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N- 12N W of 133W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 09N90W to 12N108W, then resumes near 13N118W to 10N134W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the monsoon axis E of 109W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient induced by weak deep layer ridging between Baja California and 125W is supporting mainly moderate northwest to north winds off Baja California Norte with combined seas to 6 or 7 ft. Winds and seas will diminish some through Tue, except within about 300 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, where much high winds and seas on the periphery of Tropical Storm Lowell can be expected. Farther south, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through the next couple of days. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern across the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue south of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5-6 ft range in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough along 136W from 18N to 23N continues to break up the subtropical ridge and supporting gentle moderate trade winds farther south into the deep tropics. The ridge will gradually build eastward north of 20N through mid week, and trades will strengthen somewhat between the ridge and the monsoon trough. Farther east, seas of 8-9 ft are within an area along the monsoon trough between 105W and 117W. These seas are a result of the fresh to strong southwest to west winds that are occurring in the southern part of the broad cyclonic circulation associated to Tropical Storm Lowell. In addition, persistent long-period southwesterly is present within this area as well further contributing to the build up of these seas. $$ Ramos