000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211606
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Sep 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E is centered near 17.0N 112.0W at
21/1500 UTC or about 370 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja 
California moving west-northwest at 12 kt. The estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection 
is from 12N to 18N between 111W-115W. A turn toward the west is 
expected on Wednesday. Slow strengthening is anticipated during 
the next few days, and the depression could become a tropical 
storm tonight or Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public 
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 03N-17N with axis near 136W, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is confined 
to and near the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 07N-11N between 132W
and 140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N82W to 08N97W to 
12N103W, then resumes near 13N116W to 11N133W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the monsoon
axis E of 110W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient induced by weak deep layer ridging between Baja 
California and 125W is supporting mainly moderate northwest 
to north winds off Baja California Norte with combined seas to
6 or 7 ft. Winds and seas will diminish some through Tue, except 
within about 300 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California, where much high winds and seas on the periphery of 
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E can be expected.

Farther south, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region through the next couple of days. Elsewhere, a
weak pressure pattern across the region will result in mainly 
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue south of 
the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the 
monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5-6 ft range 
in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough along 136W from 18N to 23N continues to break 
up the subtropical ridge and supporting gentle moderate trade 
winds farther south into the deep tropics. The ridge will 
gradually build eastward north of 20N through mid week, and 
trades will strengthen somewhat between the ridge and the monsoon
trough.

Farther east, seas of 8-9 ft are within an area along the 
monsoon trough between 105W and 117W. These seas are a result
of the fresh to strong southwest to west winds that are occurring 
in the southern part of the broad cyclonic circulation associated 
to Tropical Depression Seventeen-E. In addition, persistent 
long-period southwesterly is present within this area as well 
further contributing to the build up of these seas.

$$
Ramos