000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201528
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Sep 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area of 
low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of 
Manzanillo, Mexico, near 15N107W. Its estimated pressure is 1007 
mb. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form during the next day or so while the system moves 
northwestward at about 10 kt. This system has a high chance of 
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis from 17N132 to a 1009 mb low near
10N132W to 03N132W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers are noted in the vicinity of the low mainly from 08N-11N
between 128W-137W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to low pres 
near 15N107W 1007 mb to low pres near 10N132W 1009 mb and to 
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N 
between 80W-90W and from 10N to 14N between 100W-112W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak deep layer ridging observed between Baja California and 
125W is supporting moderate to fresh winds off Baja California 
Norte with combined seas to 7 ft. A recent ASCAT pass depicted 
northwest to north moderate to fresh winds mainly north of 28N. 
Winds and seas will diminish into early next week as the ridge 
weakens.

Farther south, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, a 
weak pressure pattern across the region will result in mainly 
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue south of 
the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the 
monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5-6 ft range 
in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.

Scattered moderate convection have developed along and just 
inland the majority of the Central American coast related to the
monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough along 134W from 19N to 24N is breaking up the 
subtropical ridge and supporting gentle moderate trade winds 
farther south into the deep tropics. The ridge will gradually 
build eastward north of 20N through mid week, and trades will 
strengthen somewhat between the ridge and the monsoon trough.

Farther east, seas are in the 7-8 ft range in an area along the 
monsoon trough between 105W and 115W. These seas are enhanced by 
the special features' surface low centered near 15N107W. Seas of
5-7 ft prevail elsewhere, as revealed by a recent altimeter data
pass.

$$
ERA